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Writer's pictureEvan Whitfield

Does the Economy Predict the Election?


The economy is one of the hottest topics ahead of the election. Since Covid Americans have experienced a wide range of economic hardships and changes from unemployment at nearly 15% in April 2020 to the burden that high inflation has caused. Clearly, the economy is very important to the American people, but does that matter when picking a presidential candidate?


One man, an economics professor named Ray Fair from Yale, has created a model to try and predict the winner of the presidential election. This equation takes into account the growth of GDP Per Capita in the first three quarters of 2024, the growth of the GDP deflator for the first 15 quarters of the Biden administration, and how many of those quarters had a growth rate of real per capita GDP greater than 3.2 percent.


Since 1956 Fair’s model has accurately predicted 15 out of 17 election outcomes. The two false predictions were in 2000 and 2016. Both of the incorrect predictions have come when one candidate wins the popular vote and the other wins the electoral college. With this factored into mind Fair’s model becomes a useful tool when looking at the outcome of the presidential election. When the current numbers are plugged into the equation it returns, a “48.76 Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in 2024.” Looking at this model it is very clear to see that it is still a very close race between the two candidates. 


While it can be useful to look at statistics and numbers as predictions these are not always 100% accurate. These numbers do not take into account the general day-to-day feelings that the American people have towards the economy. Another factor that can hurt the accuracy of the economic prediction is the uncertainty of policies between the two candidates. A large share of advertisements currently are political ads. Whether they are in favor of a candidate or bashing the other, screens are flooded with confusing and contradicting ads that make it hard to decide on what is fact or not when it comes to policy.


How are the voters going to decide based on economics if they do not know where each candidate truly stands? While there are some limiting factors to how accurately economics can help predict the elections models like Fair’s equation and other economic indicators can be powerful tools in looking forward to the next four years.


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